Climate change, resource conflict in Nigeria, and the immigration problem for the rest of the world

Abstract

This study explores the impact of climate change on resource conflict in Nigeria and the subsequent immigration problems for the rest of the world. Climate change-induced desertification in Northern Nigeria forces nomadic herdsmen southward in search of pasture, leading to conflicts with farmers. These conflicts have escalated over the past decade, often surpassing the security threat posed by Boko Haram, resulting in significant socio-economic and political instability in Nigeria. Previous studies have inadequately addressed the internal economic and political conditions exacerbating this conflict, often relying on the frustration-aggression theory, which falls short of explaining the conflict's dynamics. This research fills these gaps by employing a mixed-method approach, combining primary and secondary data from diverse sources and incorporating surveys and interviews with herdsmen, farmers, and migrants. The study also analyzes time-series data and critically examines 50 of the most fatal incidents in recent years. By doing so, it identifies the political and economic factors contributing to rising violence and evaluates the broader implications for global migration. The findings highlight the dire consequences of the conflict, including loss of life, property, and jobs, increased food scarcity and prices, and the potential for civil war, which collectively drive significant migration from Nigeria to Europe, Asia, and North America.