Climate variability, agricultural performance and health outcomes in West Africa

Abstract

Variability in climatic conditions is considered a threat to public health. Existing studies have directly linked climate variability to health outcomes. Whereas these past studies have not adequately assessed whether and to what extent agricultural performance mediates the effects of climate variability on health outcomes in West Africa, this study examined the mediating role of agricultural performance in the relationship between  climate variability and health outcomes in West Africa, using panel data from 16 countries over the period 1981 2024. A three step mediation framework within a two way fixed effects panel model, estimated with Driscoll Kraay standard errors, was employed to disentangle direct and indirect effects of climate variability on health outcomes in the region. The results revealed that climatevariability exerted significant direct and indirect influences on health outcomes. Temperature anomaliesconsistently displa yed adverse direct effects, reducing life expectancy and increasing infant mortality, whereas precipitation anomalies showed beneficial direct impacts on life expectancy and infant mortality. Also, findings indicated that these effects operated partially through agricultural performance: temperature anomalies negatively affected agricultural performance, while precipitation anomalies enhanced agricultural performance. Agricultural performance was found to partially mediate the effects of climate variability on health outcomes. Based on the findings, West African countries should prioritise investments in climate resilient farming practices to mitigate indirect health burdens from temperature induced agricultural declines, while enhancing agricultural product ivity through subsidised access to quality inputs, extension services, and sustainable land use practices is recommended.