OPTIMISING PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A THRESHOLD ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study aims to determine the minimum public health expenditure threshold required to stimulate optimal economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2022. The study adopts ex post facto research and data used were sourced from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and employed a dynamic panel threshold regression model as an estimation technique. The findings that public health expenditure accelerates growth above the estimated threshold at 5.67% of GDP, which is below the Abuja Declaration's benchmark of 15%. The results equally accentuate the consequential of not only the increase in public health expenditure but also enhancing other factors such as strong institutional quality this will complement the investments in health. These insights can be used by SSA authorities to create affordable interventions in health and fortify healthcare systems in order to promote long-term economic growth. also, to establish a precise public health spending criterion for SSA. Thus, the study concludes that public health expenditure once it surpasses the threshold with strong governance will automatically affect economic growth in SSA countries. The study therefore, recommends that SSA governments should increase spending efficiency by means of open governance and real-time financial control systems, institutionalise the PHE threshold as a legally binding budgetary target, and reallocate funds to high-yield primary healthcare and human capital expenses.