A Comparison of Bangladesh Climate Surfaces from the Geostatistical Point of View

Abstract

This study analyses the degree and margin of differences among the surfaces of annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT) and the yearly maximum value of the daily maximum temperature (TXx) of Bangladesh, produced by thin plate spline (TPS), inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and universal kriging (UK) methods of spatial interpolation. From the surface differences, the maximum and minimum differences are observed between the surfaces produced by TPS and IDW, and OK and UK, respectively. The residual plots from cross-validation depict that IDW and OK methods mostly under predict and TPS and UK methods mostly overpredict the observed climate indices’ values. Both the tendency of methods’ over and underprediction and the surface-differences decrease with the increase in the number of available spatial point observations. Finally, two performance measures—the index of agreement ( d ) and the coefficient of variation of prediction ( ρf )—imply that there is a little difference in the prediction ability of the four different methods. The performance of the spatial interpolation improves with the increase in the number of available spatial points, and eventually the predicted climate surfaces get similar. However, UK shows better interpolation performance in most of the years.